Start-up airlines never make it at ORH

Fuel is probably the biggest expense to an airline that wants to fly a route say ORH-Florida. Lets just say it will burn 3,000 gallon at 5 or 6 dollars that is 15,000 - 18,000 in fuel alone divided by 150 tickets that is 100 per passenger at $5 per gallon and the plane full...  

Now add in:

1. Crew
2. Airport charges on each end
3. cost of plane

There is no way you can make money unless you are Direct Air and just sell tickets, steal money, don't pay anyone then declare bankruptcy.....   

The only airline that can be profitable is one that is large enough to control their fuel costs at 2.94 per gallon and 3,000 gallon , JetBlue fuel is 9,000.    This in an over simplification, but I hope you get the point. 

JetBlue Quarterly results

Click here    Biggest expense for a airline is fuel...  Read through the the quarterly press conference and JetBlue forecasts their fuel costs at 2.94 per gallon.  Meanwhile if you buy fuel from the FBO is the cost I believe is in the $5.50 per gallon range.

The start-up airline that was looking at ORH would need to buy fuel from the FBO and their planned routes would burn 3,000 gallons of fuel. They have told me at $5.50 per gallon , there is no way the numbers work...  

I am guessing that this is the same problem Allegiant had at ORH?

Congressman Kelly

#JetBlue2ORH

Tweet with the above hashtag why you want JetBlue at ORH and how you would support them or if you are a business that has an offer.  

Dave Barger--CEO of JetBlue

On Twitter yesterday, Tim (Worc Fitness) offered free work-outs at his club for JetBlue crew at his gym.  Barger retweeted it.

I offered him 9 holes at Tatnuck CC, he responded. Will we play--I will let you know....    Maybe we are on to something?
Lets send him some more deals for his crew while at ORH?

Linear flies into ORH

twitter Link here

8 week old Great Dane Charlie (Lindbergh) flies home from KBUF to KORH to be w/sister Amelia (Earhart).

FYI today is Amelia Earhart's 112th birthday

Great Comment

JetBlue have and continue to invest a lot of money into initial and continuing certification of aircraft and crew for Autoland capability. The only reason for that expenditure is to prevent poor weather at one of their destinations causing a delay and backing up the rest of their schedule.


If you look at the portfolio of airports JetBlue uses, the vast majority are Cat III ILS equipped (those which are not tend to be in areas where the weather is historically less of an issue). Asking JetBlue to use (an often weather bound) ORH without Cat III ILS capability is in a nutshell asking JetBlue to voluntarily accept a weak link in their chain. I'm pretty sure that will remain a deal breaker.

As owners of multiple airports, Massport does have a little leverage (and if I was betting this would be how I'd place my chips) to apply here however. They could as a temporary measure make a commitment to installing Cat III ILS at ORH (this is not only expensive but time consuming). While the installation and commissioning work is progressing invite JetBlue to use ORH with a promise that in Cat II / III conditions they could divert to Logan with all additional transport and logistics costs (moving waiting and arriving passengers etc) assumed by Massport.

If the vision for ORH is truly to grow into a prosperous regional airport then installation of Cat III ILS is inevitable. All Tier 1 carriers are moving this way and are being actively encouraged to do so by the Federal Aviation Administration (this is why there is talk of the FAA shouldering some of the bill for Cat III installation at ORH). Until then, the stark reality is that without Cat III ILS I can't imagine any of the large carriers rolling the dice at ORH when there are other surer bets close by.

South Worcester Industrial Park

Last month there was a summit meeting, have heard nothing as to what will be done next.   The $50,000 bid by the abutter that was rejected has cost the city I bet you $150,000 if you were to add in permitting fees and lost property tax revenues.

When was the property awarded to Pharamasphere?

1. Janaury, 2008
2. March, 2012
3. April, 2009

Answer is  (drum roll)---- Janaury of 2008.   Four and a half years ago and the property still sits there empty owner by the City of Worcester without any property taxes being paid.

Stockton Part 2

BizarroLukes Twitter

Is it just me or does this remind anyone of Will from Wonderland reincarnated?

Twitter Account for Barger Visit

What do you think???
@BargeratORH


UPDATE--that is not going to work

Sutner!!!

Sutner drives to Providence and finds out:

1. JetBlue does not care about an access road
2. JetBlue wants better signage, we are doing that
3. JetBlue wants Cat III landing equipment, MassPort will doit
4. JetBlue wants daily flights not weekly

But here is the big one Dave Barger, the CEO of JetBlue, will be here again in August.  What day, we can find out..   Do we line Pleasant Street like we did for Bill Clinton many years ago?  No.  I got an idea, lets leave it up to the Chamber of Commerce to come up with something..   Wait a second they are too busy working on last year's financials.    Where was GoLocal Providence?  Still confused by their headline that JetBlue picked Providence over Worcester...

What do we do?  I do not know, but consider this.    Social Media is very important to JetBlue!!!!   What can we do the day Mr Barger comes to ORH that will show JetBlue how badly we want their services at ORH??

I do not know the answer but lets come up with some ideas...

Good News out of Providence

None of the news we heard yesterday was bad for Worcester. 

1. Airport access road is not a concern for JetBlue.  How huge is that!!!!    Evidently they want better signage and they are getting it.
2. I have heard that JetBlue had concerns about the current landing system and they want it Category III landing equipment installed.   My bet is MassPort is addressing that.
3. The CEO said that there is not enough aircraft to add service this year.   Did not say anything about next year.   Look for a potential announcement at end of year for service beginning in 2013.
4. Mr Barger takes social media like Twitter very seriously.   
5. Daily flights!!  This is great news. 

Most importantly , he is coming to Worcester again in August.   What is the bad news here?  Do you think the Chamber of Commerce or anyone else will plan anything for this next meeting? 

These things take time, but today's news all good for Worcester Airport. 

Sutner in Pro for press conferenc

One JetBlue Flight

Right now we have nothing.  All I am saying is if we get one flight, it will be 100% or 1000% more then we have right now.   If we sell out the plane and JetBlue makes money then we will get additional flights, but we need to get one flight before we get two and then maybe eventually daily shuttle service to JFK. 

Lets just concentrate on getting one flight and making it successful then the rest will follow.  

North Las Vegas declares state of emergency

What is the emergency?  They have no money!!

Click here

Florida

It is the number one destination overall from the Worcester catchment area and thus the safest destination for an airline to pick out of ORH.  I only say one flight per week since that is the minimum that you really need to establish a route.  If there are two flights, great but I doubt it.

One flight to Florida from ORH starting in Fall/Winter.

Allegiant Departure

I was told by a pretty reliable source that it was that they had no control over their fuel costs thus the route was not profitable.  If they had a better control over their fuel costs at ORH, they would have made money and stayed.

Now someone can explain this alot better then me, but JetBlue would not have this problem.  I was told this and forgot to ask why.  Maybe they fuel up at their own hub at JFK and do not have to fuel up at ORH?   Maybe someone out their can explain this better.  

JetBlue

I just posted a comment on my last post.    Could not agree more with the anonymous post.    JetBlue considering us and putting flight per week at ORH is huge news?!!

In and of itself is one flight much?  No, but if we support this flight and JetBlue realizes people can find ORH and they make money, what do you think they will do next??

Don't underestimate the fight JetBlue just picked with SouthWest in Providence.  A whole lot of people dont fly JetBlue out of Boston , but SouthWest out of Providence.       JetBlue flying out of Providence and ORH is going to hurt SouthWest big..

Guys, and girls, one leisure flight per week is going to cost JetBlue some money, do you have any idea how much multiple weekly flights to a major hub would cost.   It ain't going to happen in the short term.

ORH's main goal is to establish itself as a place people will to leisure destinations:

1. Florida
2. San Juan
3. Myrtle Beach

Once we do that then, and only then, can we start talking about multiple weekly flights to a hub.  

ORH Marketing Plan

The best case scenario for ORH is to have daily service to JFK from JetBlue, from which you can then connect to anywhere around the country direct.    If it is not JetBlue then someone else, but JetBlue makes the most sense to due to the closeness of their hub and their current relationship with MassPort out of Boston.

Many poeple recently have called one flight per week out of ORH to Florida from JetBlue as "token" or worthless.  It most definately is not.   There is no way in hell anyone airline is going to drop out of the sky inot ORH, that has no commercial service, and start daily shuttles to a hub.

A direct flight to Florida with JetBlue will give us an opportunity to show demand exists in Worcester!!   If JetBlue prices this flight higher then Boston and Providence and we fill the plane making it a profitable flight, what do you think will happen next?  

A direct flight by a carrier, whether it is JetBlue or some other legacy carrier, gives Worcester a chance.  That is all we can ask for right now. 

Is one flight from JetBlue a handout?

Or token flight?  Absolutely!!

That is why we wanted MassPort as our owner to help us get opportunities like this.  The question is what we do with these handouts?   Do we support JetBlue like we did Direct Air, an awful airline.  Actually they were not even an airline.  

I think we will and the one flight will be a huge success, whereby JetBlue can charge more then they can out of either PRO or BOS and these flights will be profitable and will lead to more flights.   As far as a business plan for ORH, our business plan needs to be leisure flights to places like Florida, San Juan, and Myrtle Beach.

JetBlue formally announces Providence

Don't get derpressed these rumors started long before the ORH rumors and they have become a reality.   Still believe we get on flight to Florida by the end of the year.

Could this be called a token flight?  Sure--so what?  Lets sell it out and jetBlue will bring more. 

Stockton Part 1

Current City Council should watch this.  Never mind they are too busy listening to the Jim Polito show

Another question for Jahn

Lets suppose I want to sell you my house...  We figure the market value is 700,000, but there are some problems.  I have an old oil tank in the cellar that needs to be removed, the roof and the boiler is old.  You do your inspections, you and I  negotiate and I sell you my house for an agreed upon price of 500,000.   

With me so far?

After you buy the house, you realize the problems are worse then you thought and you really only should have paid 300,000:

1. Should I "step up" and give you $200,000 back
2. Should I say that I gave you permission to do all the due diligence that you wanted, I never lied about anything and negotiated fairly and owe you nothing.  Buyer beware!!
3. Should you ask the government for help to bail out your mistake for over-paying for my house

Before you answer read what some of our local delegation think, click here

Smartest guy in Worcester?

I pick City Auditor DelSignore...   This guy is basically on the Titanic right before it is hits an iceberg and is getting off into a life raft....  Imagine being the person replacing him??? 

Our unfunded liabilities are much more then anyone estimates and we will be lucky to merely balance the budgets, never mind putting any extra cash towards these outstanding debts.   After he retires I am going to go look for him and see if he will be willling to talk to me..

Chamber of Commerce Finances

Jahn:

I have a question for you.  The Chamber has not released their finances still for last year does that mean:

a) they had a great year last year and are flush with cash
b) their accountant is just real slow
c) their numbers are horrible and they are afraid to release them

Here is my next Ground Hog's Day Prediction.... Last year I said Direct Air would be out of business by Ground Hog's Day of 2012, but I missed it by one month.    By Ground Hog's Day of 2013, the gravity of the financial condition of the Worcester Chamber of Commerce will be public information and there will be a new Executive Director. 

Residential Tax Base

We always talk about the shrinking commercial tax base, maybe we better start worrying about the residential base.  You cross the line into any town and single family houses are being built.  In Worcester, I can not think of one new residential construction project.  Looking at my mother's neighborhood (Tatnuck), I am seeing some smaller single family houses selling under 100K??

This is a direct result of our mismanaged housing policy the past ten + years.     The over reliance on CDC's to build "affordable" housing when we are 50% that which is mandated by the Commonwealth of Massashusetts has lead to this.  

I can not emphasize enough how important the new Housing Plan is that is going to be released and hopefuly we can save our residential tax base?

Brad Wyatt in GQ

http://www.gq.com/news-politics/blogs/death-race/2012/07/whos-afraid-of-these-ron-paul-delegates.html

San Bernandino, CA

The San Bernardino City Council's decision to file for municipal bankruptcy came days after the city learned it had just $150,000 in its bank accounts, barely enough to make payroll June 15, city officials said. Shortly before the council's vote Tuesday night, City Atty. James Penman warned the city would "shut down," including public safety agencies, if it didn't have enough money to pay its employees

Scranton PA

Check out 

JetBlue prediction

Prediction one flight per week to start in October. A320 to Florida destination. Guessing SRQ-Sarasota Bradenton

City Manager on Jim Polito

According to Diane Williamson yesterday the City Manager was asked to no longer be on the Politio show by the majority of the City Council. 

I will miss him.     Although he will still be on the Levy show, I am not able to listen to that much in the afternoon..   On the other hand, the Polito slot was perfect and I learned alot about the city from the City Manager and various department heads that he would bring on the show.

Versus the City Manager and Department heads not being on the Polito show, they should be in more media outlets and social media to be in touch with the tax-payers??    Asking the City Manager not to be on this show is a complete disservice to the the tax-payers of Worcester...

I truly hope Jim Polito continues the :"Heroes Amongst Us" segment. 

Concerned about Will

Saturday night and not a group e-mail to hundreds of people around Worcester from Will from Wonderland posing to as myself directing people to a link on his blog...     Funny Dennis Irish actually sent me an e-mail asking me to take him of the e-mail list???   I told Dennis to walk next door and put in the request--wonder if he did....  
 


I would drive by to check up on him, but he would take me to court for harassment.  Hope you are okay Will and look forward to you next e-mail posing as me..

Mammoth Lakes, California

Cominig soon to Worcester, click here.   Votes like our City Council passed two weeks ago only confirms this will happen...  There is no doubt in my mind we are destined for bankruptcy the pension and medical unfunded liability will only grow and I think is underestiamted when we are basing our projections on an 8% return???

Worry after this last vote that our City Manager may decide to move on..   Camrbridge job would look dam good to me if I was him....    Where is our new Housing Policy anyhow??    

Fort Myers

The more I think about this, the more I like Fort Myers as the destination by jetBlue. 

JetBlue CEO on @flyorh twitter

Must read https://mobile.twitter.com/#!/flyorh

Chamber of Commerce Health Plans

The Chamber of Commerce plans have three carriers to choose from:

1. Harvard Pilgrim
2. Fallon
3. Health New England

Please note that Health New England is only appropriate for employers in Western Massachusetts.  Even with three carriers, there are a limited number of plan designs available.


Harvard-Pilgrim offers NO traditional "co-payment" plans, but only high "deductible" plans starting at $1,500 for their traditional larger network and $1,000 for the smaller "Focus" network. Similarily, Fallon has NO "co-payment" plans, and deductible plans start at 1,000 for all three of their networks: Select, Direct and the newly formed Steward.

Why join? There are discounts for these limited plans. How much? You can save 3% on the premium by going through the Chamber of Commerce versus going to the carrier direct. This discount, however, comes with a cost:

1. Annual membership fee:
2. Monthly administration fee: Harvard-Pilgrim charges $20 per month per subscriber. A group of two employees will be charged $40 per month or $480 for the year!!Fallon varies the monthly fee by coverage (single is $5/month, employee/child is $9/month, employee/spouse is $10/month, family is$15 per month).
3. Wellness Program Penalty: At the end of each calendar year subscribers who are active participants will be calculated. Businesses that fall short of a 60% active participation threshold will be assessed a one time $100 charge for each covered employee short of the threshold in the calendar year.

After the Annual Membership, monthly administration fee and any wellness penalties, how much of your 3% savings is left? And that assumes you like one of these high deductible plans. In addition, it also assumes that the rates are more competitive than Blue Cross or Tufts, which the Chamber of Commerce does not offer. We do not see this being viable until the up front discount is more in thee 5-10% range.

Chamber of Commerce

Still have no filed their financials for last year.   Not a good sign.   

Rosalie

Do we agree on everything politically?  No... so what.. 

I do, however, consider her a friends and respect how hard she has worked on her newspaper...  Just wanted to let you know my thoughts are with you this week.. 

Robert Z Nemeth

Missed his story last Sunday about the airport.   Read his story today.  Got to admit, Robert Z Nemeth nailed this one.

Good job Z.